Introduction
Since the start of the year, changes in and outside China have profoundly affected its socio-economic development. While its economy is steadily recovering as control of the pandemic improves, there are still several challenges to long-term growth.
How will China adjust its macro policies to address cyclical volatilities amid multiple internal and external challenges? How will banks' asset quality evolve along with a moderating economic recovery? How will asset-backed securities perform in the post-pandemic era? Will faith in the government's support for LGFVs change amid the tightening regulatory environment? How will risk in the real estate sector evolve amid liquidity pressure? How will China’s dual carbon emission targets affect credit risks in key industries?
This conference brings you in-depth discussions and insights on these topics and credit risks.
agenda
MC：
- Han Lv, Vice President of CCXI
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09:00 – 09:15
Opening Remarks
Speakers：- Yan Yan, Chairman and President of CCXI
- Min Ye, Managing Director - Head of International, Moody's
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09:15 – 10:00
Keynote speech: China's economy - Challenges and policy choices under cross-cycle adjustment
Speaker：- Zhenhua Mao, Founder of CCX, Chief Economist of CCXI
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10:15 – 10:55
Fireside chat: Policy mix shifts focus amid growth slowdown
• The global economy has entered a stable growth phase through 2023, despite supply chain disruptions and inflation risks
• China's government is shifting policy weight from growth to refocus on common prosperity and containing leverage
• Regulatory uncertainty and property market slowdown to weigh on China's economic outlook
Speakers：- Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy and Standards, Moody's
- Martin Petch, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's
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11:00 – 11:45
Panel discussion: Chinese bank's asset risk and business growth against evolving policy priorities
• Property sector deleveraging and inclusive financing are changing banking asset risks, but they bring limited systemic risk
• Green finance brings asset risks related to high-carbon sectors, but also growth opportunities for large financial institutions
• Tight regulations have mixed implications on banks’ asset quality, deposit-gathering practice and liability structures
• Sector net interest margin decline and provision have moderated, but small and mid-sized banks still face high earning pressure
Moderator：- Chen Huang, Associate Managing Director, Moody's Investors Service
Speakers：- Yuqi Wen, Director of CCXI Financial Institution Rating Department
- Teng Fei, Director of CCXI Financial Institution Rating Department
- Yulia Wan, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's
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11:45 – 12:30
Panel discussion: NBFIs' risk and business prospects against evolving policy priorities
• What business opportunities will the NBFIs face against a slowing economy and policy shifts?
• What is the outlook for NBFIs' asset quality?
• Recent developments in funding access and overall credit outlook
Moderator：- Tianyu Xue, Managing Director of CCXI Financial Institution Rating Department
Speakers：- Hang Meng, Director of CCXI Financial Institution Rating Department
- Fenghua Zhang, Director of CCXI Financial Institution Rating Department
- Qian Zhu, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's
- Lan Wang, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's
MC：
- Li Ma, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's
- Ivan Chung, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's
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13:30 – 14:30
Panel discussion: Post-pandemic trend in asset securitization
• 2021 market overview and underlying assets performance review
• Development in asset types and transaction structures
• Trend in transfer model of individual non-performing loans
• 2022 market outlook
Moderator：- David Deng, Vice President of CCXI
Speakers：- Jerome Cheng, Associate Managing Director, Structured Finance Group, Moody's
- Gracie Zhou, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Structured Finance Group, Moody's
- Ye Tian, Senior Deputy Director of CCXI Structured Finance Department
- Yanhui Ma, Managing Director of CCXI Structured Finance Department
- Yinan Zhang, Vice President, Heyi Technology
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14:30 – 15:20
LGFVs: Evolution and credit profile divergences amid tightening regulations
• Presentation: LGFV credit trends amid tightening regulation• What are the responsibilities of LGFVs and their owner RLGs in mitigating implicit debt risks?
• How would risks diverge among LGFVs amid tightening funding conditions?
• What credit implications would LGFVs face as the property sector slows down?
• Presentation: Key credit drivers beyond RLG owners' credit strengths• How do LGFVs' ownership and organization structure affect the timeliness of government support?
• How will RLGs continue to provide support to LGFVs amid the tightening regulatory environment?
• Will LGFVs’ business model evolution weaken government support?
Speakers：- Jun Wang, Vice President of CCXI
- Sarah Xu, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's
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15:30 – 16:15
Presentation: China Property - Sector outlook and rated developers' credit trends
• What is the impact of policy changes on the market?
• How have changing refinancing conditions affected commercial property sales and developers' performance?
• What are rated developers' credit trends and liquidity profiles?
Speakers：- Tianxuan Gong, Managing Director of CCXI Corporate Rating Department
- Cedric Lai, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's
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16:15 – 17:15
Panel discussion: Credit risks and opportunities in key sector under the dual carbon emission targets
• Post-pandemic credit conditions and risk warning in bond market
• Risks and opportunities in key sectors on the path to decarbonisation
• Impact of volatility in property market on related sectors and risk transmissions
Moderator：- Kai Hu, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's
Speakers：- Alvin Cheng, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Fidelity China
- Lilan Wu, Vice President of CCXI
- Qiuping Xie, CEO of CCXA
- Yuting Liu, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's
- Guo Qingqing, Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s
Speakers
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